PeakTrader.com

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PeakTrader said...

It's amazing some people will hold all the significant economic variables that determine inflation constant, over time, to come up with a ridiculous inflation rate, that contradicts all the other variables, like the charlatan at Staticstats.

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The inflation bias is some people screaming inflation, while silent on disinflation and deflation.

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Morganovich, you're beating your own records for false assumptions.

Why should the BLS provide a huge amount of math that few people understand?

The economics is already out there and few people understand that, except mainstream economists, who agree with the BLS.

Some people will do what they do now with information. Pick less than 1%, ignore the rest, and come up with ridiculous conclusions.

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Top mainstream economists are experts in both math and econ. So, they're the ones to ask about the BLS.

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John Williams of Staticstats reminds me of a crackpot yelling "fire!"

Nervous people will react strongly and sense there's a roaring fire somewhere without realizing it's just a barbecue.

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Some people aren't interested in economic proof inflation is much closer to zero than 10% (which I've shown many ways).

Afterall, what does economics have to do with inflation?

And the economy is dynamic. The severe housing or financial crisis wasn't inevitable with appropriate economic policies.

Also, a milder recession or a V-shaped recovery could've been achieved (I predicted Obama would be an economic disaster in Jan '09, although I underestimated the damage).

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PeakTrader said...

Someone wrote: "Technology increases productivity. And when productivity grows, manufactured goods become less expensive and the market for them expands. That creates a demand for more workers, and that extra demand usually outweighs the labor-saving impact of mechanization."

However, prices tend to be "sticky," many U.S. manufactured goods have market power, and U.S. manufacturing shifted into more high-end goods (and fewer low-end goods). So, the result can be higher profits rather than lower prices.

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PeakTrader said...

It's very difficult to trade in the stock market, because of price movements and timing.

Examples:

*Price falls from 50 to 10, bought, and then falls to 1.

*Bought at 50, stayed around 50 for a week, rose to 100 a week later and sold, and then rising to 500 within two weeks after selling.

*Bought at 1, did not move for six months, sold at 1, and then rising to 50 quickly shortly thereafter.

*Bought at 10, quickly rose to 50, didn't sell, and then falls to 1.

You don't know how high or low they'll rise or fall, and when they'll move.

Also, you can outperform the market by a huge margin for years, and then there's a change in the market and all those gains are wiped out or worse within a few months.

Moreover, I've created rules. However, I don't always have the discipline to follow my own rules, particularly when I need them the most.

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You may want to hire this guy to manage your portfolio:

'Bull's-eye investors' still lose
New study says 82% of day-traders end up in red
Aug. 17, 2004

Chimp made chump of best day-traders

Raven the chimpanzee was picking stocks by throwing darts and he was even beating the top portfolio managers with 300 percent annual returns on his Monkeydex portfolio.

This new study is a huge embarrassment for traders! These traders were not only huge losers, the 82 percent who were repeat losers were so blind and dumb they still stayed in this loser's game and just kept losing! That's the trader's DNA at work!

Worse yet, the "winners" were the dumbest of all. The so-called winning traders were not only making less than Raven the monkey, they were making less than a buy-and-hold investor.

The only people who really make money in trading are the service professionals (stock brokers, hedge-fund managers, financial advisers, etc). The pros get their commissions no matter how much investors and traders lose.

Chimpanzees are superior to human traders. The trader's DNA controls their brains; they have no choice but to chase the fantasy that they can beat the market. They are addicted to losing. The pros know this and love milking their delusional "winner's fantasy" like a cash cow."

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