PeakTrader.com

[administrator]

Peak Oil Chart

http://gregor.us/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Global-Average-Annual-Crude-Oil-Production-2001-2011.png

Rufus II said...

During the worst recession in 70 years, while the OECD Nations were cutting consumption by 4 Million Barrels/Day, China, and the other Emerging Economies were "Increasing" their Consumption 4 Million Barrels/Day.

The Bottom Line is, China is more efficient in its use of oil than are we. As a result, they can pay more.

There is a price that will put the U.S., the U.K., and the Eurozone into Recession, and Allow China/India, et al to keep right on Growing.

-------

PeakTrader said...

Production of depletable resources peak and decline.

Peak Gold: Yearly Gold Production Is Now On A Permanent Downwards Slope
November 14, 2009

The President of the largest gold mining and production company, Barrick Gold, noted that after ten years of declining production it is time to recognize that the world has seen the peak in gold production.

----------

PeakTrader said...

Rufus says: "China is more efficient in its use of oil than are we. As a result, they can pay more."

China uses oil so inefficiently, it makes up for it through consumption. The U.S. uses oil, at least in production, more efficiently than any other country in the world.

"China’s consumption share of GDP has fallen fairly steadily since the era of economic reform in the late seventies...during the past decade, the decline has been precipitous — falling from 46.4% in 2000 to 35.1% in 2010."

---------

tubaplayer said...

Not a mention of Energy Returned Over Energy Invested (EROEI)! Tut-tut.

The writer conveniently ignores the fact that the days of 100:1 EROEI are gone. Once EROEI reaches 1:1 at is game over - finished. There may well be trillions of barrels left in the earth. It will stay there. Economics can do nothing about this. It is a geological reality that is staring us in the face and getting closer every year.

--------

Rufus II said...

The point is, PT, that you get more of a "productivity increase" out of the First family car than you do the third.

A Chinese workman that buys a small truck to take himself, his tools, and a couple of helpers to the jobsite is getting much more productivity out of his small vehicle than your 16 yr old is getting by driving her Mustang to the Mall, or your wife is getting from driving the SUV to the nail salon.

If you were the "Median" Family that saw its income Decrease in the last 12 months you would be much more likely to cut back on your daughter's trip to the Mall than that workman is to not go to work.

---------

PeakTrader said...

Rufus, you're talking about diminishing marginal utility and diminishing marginal productivity.

Chinese consumers are willing to spend more for the first cup of tea than the 10th.

Chinese producers are willing or forced to spend or invest $10 for an additional unit of output worth less than $10.

--------

Rufus II said...

However you want to put it, PT. I'm just saying, "the fact is, the Chinese have proven an ability to pay more for oil than we can."

Ergo, at a certain oil price, they continue to prosper, and we go backward.

And, of course, I'm just using China as a metaphor for a whole group of emerging nations.

--------

PeakTrader said...

Rufus, the U.S. has a much greater capacity to overpay for oil than China.

Both the U.S. and China prosper.

Over the past decade, for every $10 of real value the U.S. gained, China may gained $2.

-------

Rufus II said...

PT, we're running at sub 1% growth, and in the fourth qtr we'll "print negative." China is running at 8.5% Growth, and may drop to 7.5 to 8.0% Growth in the 4th qtr.

I consider that "quite worrisome."

--------

PeakTrader said...

Rufus, the U.S. could spend or invest $10 for $1 worth of solar energy too.

Both U.S. producers and consumers can overpay for solar energy.

China's growth-at-any-cost policy is very inefficient. It's a waste.

However, it looks good on the production side and keeps people employed.

--------

Rufus II said...

Maybe so, PT; but THEY have a couple of Trillion Dollars in OUR Debt sitting in Their vault.

All we have is one hellacious credit card bill (and, a very big house with a mortgage that's underwater, and a Declining Income Statement.

--------

PeakTrader said...

Rufus, overworked and underpaid people who save can have money too, while the government squanders money. What's your point?

--------

Rufus II said...

My point is: Peak oil doesn't ignore economics; "economics" ignores peak oil.

The theory that demand will make supply appear (magically, it seems) Ignores Reality.

The simple reality that every 4 yr old may not like, but has learned to accept: to wit, "There Is No Bottomless Milkshake."

---------

Che is dead said...

We've been here before:

That we have even got this far without exhausting the Earth's resources would have astonished the Victorians. In the mid-19th century, the outlook seemed bleak. Among the experts arguing that we were squandering our limited energy supply for short-term prosperity was William Stanley Jevons, Professor of Political Economy at University College London.

In his work of 1865, The Coal Question, the distinguished economist cautioned that we had become wholly dependent on the finite resource of coal. Indeed, some calculations - based on the increasing rate of extraction and the geological analysis of how much coal remained underground - suggested that Britain could run out by 1900.

At this point, Jevons maintained, the economy would literally run out of steam, reducing Britons to a medieval standard of living. The cost of shipping coal from elsewhere in the world would be prohibitive and, in any case, the leading geologists calculated that other countries would quickly exhaust their stocks as well.

Times of London

"Peak Oil" and "Global Warming" are just two parts of the same leftist con job designed to create a sense of urgency to adopt their policies which, of course, entail massive tax increases and wealth redistribution.

--------

rjs said...

speaking of being wrong again and again:

The Sad Record of Daniel Yergin and Cambridge Energy Research

http://home.entouch.net/dmd/cera.htm

--------

PeakTrader said...

In 1956, American geophysicist M. King Hubbert correctly predicted that production of oil from conventional sources would peak in the continental United States around 1965-1970.

Hubbert further predicted a worldwide peak in "about half a century."...Hubbert added that the actions of OPEC might flatten the global production curve but this would only delay the peak for perhaps 10 years.