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morganovich said...

meanwhile, the aggregate of the regional fed surveys shows a sharp decline for august with the new york/philly pair giving a clear recessionary signal:

http://cr4re.com/charts/charts.html?Manufacturing#category=Manufacturing&chart=ISMFedAug2011.jpg

this would seem to imply august ism is not going to be pretty.

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PeakTrader said...

Let's not forget the steep fall of interest rates in August, including mortgage rates.

And a potential stimulus plan, after the weakest homeowners have been driven-out (homebuilding stocks are up three days in a row):

Obama considering massive refinance program-report
August 25, 2011

President Obama is reconsidering a plan to allow millions of homeowners with government-backed mortgages the ability to refinance their mortgage at historically low rates.

Despite historic lows for mortgage rates, many borrowers are unable to refinance their high-rate mortgage because their credit history is blemished or they do not have enough equity in the home for the lender to make a new loan under today's stricter standards.

The plan could save millions of homeowners hundreds or even thousands of dollars every month, potentially unleashing consumers with extra money to spend on other items. That would boost the economy and create jobs as demand for goods and services increase, backers of the plan say.

From another article:

Such a proposal would meet opposition from investors in government-backed mortgage bonds, as well as the regulator who oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

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morganovich said...

peak-

i'm not sure what you believe that demonstrates.

new mortgage applications have not recovered in any meaningful way from the depths of the recession.

all these "refi giveaways" are just making the problem worse again by doing exactly what caused the crisis to begin with: giving people loans that doe not reflect the risk.

how does a big new round of underpriced risk and loan losses solve anything?

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PeakTrader said...

Morganovich, too tight lending standards, for households and businesses, is a bigger risk.

Do you want recession or recovery?

Lending standards can be tightened again when a real recovery is underway.

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/how-economy-quietly-entered-recession-friday-and-why-gdp-predicts-sub-zero-nonfarm-payroll-numb