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PeakTrader said...

U.S. consumers may be squeezed by rising taxes (and fees, fares, fines, tolls, etc.), and rising prices, including through more regulation, while income growth remains too slow.

Economists: Lower growth expected as oil prices crimp the economy
May 15, 2011

A survey from the National Association for Business Economics predicts (real) GDP will grow 2.8 percent this year — down from the group’s February prediction that it would grow 3.3 percent.

Their outlook for consumer spending and the housing market also weakened, in part because they expect oil prices to remain above $100 a barrel through 2012.

The panel of 41 economists also said they “remain highly concerned” about the growing federal deficit.

Business spending was the bright spot in the NABE predictions. The economists expect spending on business equipment and software to rise 11.9 percent this year.

Corporate profits will rise by 8.5 percent, they predict.

This is not a good economic cycle:

Economic data suggests soft patch continues
May 17, 2011

PAYCHECK CYCLE STILL IN EFFECT

Wal-Mart said U.S. sales fell in the February to April quarter, adding it continued to see a paycheck cycle, where people stock up around payday and then spend less as money runs out.