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Joined: 28 Dec 2005 Posts: 11966
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Posted: Fri Nov 18, 2022 9:50 pm Post subject: Next Week Trading (Nov 18th) |
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Next Week Trading (Nov 18th):
SPX finished the week about where it started the week - at 3,965. The 4,000 level has been resistance and the (declining) 200 day MA is 4,067. Seasonality is bullish. However, a recession next year is likely with the Fed hiking, particularly with the Fed being behind the curve. The 50 day MA is 3,790. It's likely SPX will trade between the 50 and 200 day MAs next week. It traded between 3,900 and 4,030 last week. The daily NYMO is at 24. I plan to start buying SPY calls when it falls below negative 50, given it's the most reliable technical indicator at oversold levels, although not perfect. The farther the fall below negative 50, the bigger the snapback.
My portfolio is about $2,445,000 including $2,443,500 in cash.
Calls Contracts-Shares Long
None
Puts Contracts-Shares Short
None
Portfolio at $100,000 on March 1st, 2018. Portfolio stop loss suspended. Scaled up and adjusted portfolio. Both prior portfolios, since early 2000s, rose initially and substantially, and then failed quickly in “irrational” market “melt-ups," where stocks can go straight up month after month. |
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