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Joined: 28 Dec 2005 Posts: 11986
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Posted: Fri Jul 01, 2022 4:45 am Post subject: Jul 1st Trading Log (Updates - Slowing Inflation) |
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Jul 1st Trading Log (Updates):
Current Trades: Sold 1,000 ARKK shares at 41.00, sold 20,000 DNA shares at 2.52, and bought the 20,000 DNA shares back at 2.40 --------- Inflation: The Core PCE price index y-o-y, which the Fed has a target of 2%, rose from 1.5% in February 2021 to 5.3% in February 2022. It declined to 5.2% in March, 4.9% in April, and 4.7% in May (reported yesterday). GDP growth: Real GDP contracted 1.6% in the first quarter this year and GDPNOW estimates it contracted 1% in the second quarter. So, there may have been a recession in the first half of the year. SPX closed at 3,785 yesterday. It may hold the yearly low at 3,636 and the slightly rising 200 week EMA currently 3,642, at least over the next few weeks and rise to at least 3,900 based on numerous technical indicators. So, I plan to buy on pullbacks and sell some on bounces.
My portfolio is over $1,705,000 including $1,306,500 in cash.
Calls Contracts-Shares Long
EWJ 2,000 shares
ARKK 2,000 shares
BABA 1,000 shares
DNA 40,000 shares
Puts Contracts-Shares Short
None
Portfolio at $100,000 on March 1st, 2018. Portfolio stop loss suspended. Scaled up and adjusted portfolio. Both prior portfolios, since early 2000s, rose initially and substantially, and then failed quickly in “irrational” market “melt-ups," where stocks can go straight up month after month. |
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