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Expected Inflation & Quality Improvements

 
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PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2014 11:35 pm    Post subject: Expected Inflation & Quality Improvements Reply with quote

PeakTrader:

Ten year expected inflation has been in a general decline, since the early 1980s. Chart:

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/data/inflation_expectations/2014/March/image1.gif

Also, it’s likely, inflation has been overstated, because of new products and quality improvements, when the Information Revolution accelerated after the 1970s.

For example, how do we measure the improvements in cell phones over the past decade? Are they 10 times better – a 100 times better? It seems, prices of cell phones haven’t changed that much.

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Spencer:

In the CPI they estimate that wireless telephone service has fallen from 100 in Dec 1997 to 57.8 in March 2014.

That is roughly a -2.5% average annual rate of decline.

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