PeakTrader.com

[administrator]

PeakTrader:

If we had a normal economic recovery, oil prices would be even higher, because of Peak Oil, and the U.S. oil production boom would be even bigger:

U.S. may soon become world’s top oil producer
October 23, 2012

“Saudi oil is cheap to tap, while the methods needed to tap U.S. oil are very expensive. If the price of oil falls below $75 per barrel, drillers in the U.S. will almost certainly begin to cut back.”

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Also, I may add, while the marginal cost of production may increase, advances in technology, or increases in productivity, will, at least, somewhat offset the higher cost.

Moreover, I may add, the charts seem to indicate a “sustainability effect” (of prices staying high) is much more important than a threshold effect (of a spike in prices).

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Without Peak Oil, the jobs “recovery” would be even worse.

Of course, without Peak Oil, more money would’ve been spent in more efficient industries (rather than the oil industry).

Also, I may add, if a country is prosperous enough to afford higher environmental standards, it can surely afford higher labor standards, including a higher real minimum wage.

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How do you know lower-skilled people wouldn’t rather stay with their parents playing video games, join gangs, etc. than work for less than a subsistence wage, while poor immigrants are exploited for their hard work?

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Yes, I’m sure they prefer sharing a room with three other poor immigrants in California, riding a bike to work and sending a little money home, rather than sleeping in a tin hut with a dirt floor, or in a car, being unemployed, working for $1 an hour, or being a hobo.

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Ron, I’m sure you prefer being a slave than dying of thirst in the desert.

Perhaps, you believe in slavery, along with simple and incorrect economics.

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The Oil Drum
July 11, 2012

“To estimate the global production capacity that is lost each year, it’s necessary to estimate the production-weighted aggregate decline rate of all fields, including those in build-up and plateau. Using the IEA data, we estimate this figure of 4.1%/year which is comparable to CERA’s estimate of 4.5%/year. This implies that around 3 mb/d of capacity must be added by new investment each year, simply to maintain global production at current levels.”

My comment: World oil production has been roughly flat, since 2006. It seems likely, we can expect higher prices, more conservation, and greater use of alternative energy, including ethanol and natural gas.

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“Ethanol in high concentrations cant be delivered in existing pipeline systems due to it’s [its] corrosive nature.”

We’ll need ethanol, because many of the supergiant oil fields, which produce about half of the world’s oil, are in decline, more will decline, and decline rates will accelerate.

However, there’s some good news:

UPDATE 2-U.S. oil production to jump 25 percent by 2014-EIA
Reuters
Jan 8, 2013

“U.S. crude oil production is expected to rise by the largest amount on record in 2013, the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday, and is set to soar by almost a quarter over the next two years.”

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Iraq’s flood of ‘cheap oil’ could rock world markets
The Washington Times
February 3, 2013

“Iraq passed a critical milestone last year by producing 3 million barrels a day of crude oil for the first time since 1990.”

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