PeakTrader.com

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Output Gap:

http://stateofworkingamerica.org/charts/output-gap-real-gdp-compared-to-potential-gdp-2000-11/

http://brickcity.wordpress.com/2011/12/30/10-charts-of-the-year-gdp-gap/

Some average annual real GDP growth rates are:

1946-2010 3.16%
1982-2007 3.30%
2001-2010 1.60%

Also, I may add, the larger an economy becomes, the slower the growth rate (similarly, smaller firms can grow faster than larger firms).

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To begin to close the $1 trillion a year output gap, U.S. GDP will need to expand faster:

U.S. Real GDP Growth

2008 0%
2009 -3.5%
2010 3.0%
2011 1.7%

2012 2.0%?

From the trough in 1991 to the peak in 2007, annual U.S. real GDP growth averaged about 3.2%.

According to the Fed:

Fed Watch: Fed Still Lowering Potential Output Growth Estimates?
March 20, 2012

"Last fall, Dudley thought that growth somewhat above 2.5% would not bring unemployment down, while 2.75% would only have modest impacts.

That suggests an estimate of potential growth around 2.6-2.7%.

We need sustained growth above that rate to absorb the substantial amount of unused productive capacity."

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