PeakTrader.com

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PeakTrader said...

If government would've allowed more drilling, more resources would've shifted or flowed into oil production to facilitate technological progress (oil firms would still minimize cost and maximize profit).

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Former GE CEO Jack Welch Blasts Obama’s Leadership
13 Apr 2012

"President Obama’s “divide-and-conquer” approach isn’t what great leaders do, Jack Welch said.

The renowned former General Electric CEO chided the president for blaming others for economic woes.

“It was the insurance executives in health care. It was the bankers in the collapse. It was the oil companies as oil prices go up. It was Congress if things didn’t go the way he wanted. And recently it’s been the Supreme Court,” he said.

In 1981, Welch became GE’s youngest CEO, and increased its market value by $387 billion, making it the world’s most valuable company." (left GE in 2000).

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Rufus II, there's no need to "save" oil, because of technological advances in oil production (to extend supply) and new energy sources.

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Larry, if the U.S. was producing several million more bbl/d of crude oil, you don't believe world oil prices would be significantly lower, ceteris paribus? (And more stable, and lower, as Dr Perry wrote.)

I stated before:

Without excessive restrictions just in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico, the U.S. could've added 1 million bbl/d or more instead of the 120 thousand bbl/d.

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EIA Expects Higher U.S. Crude Production
Mar 7, 2012

"U.S. crude oil production increased by an estimated 120 thousand bbl/d to 5.60 million bbl/d in 2011.

A 390-thousand bbl/d increase in lower-48 onshore production in 2011 was partly offset by a 40-thousand bbl/d decline in Alaska and a 230-thousand bbl/d decline in output in the Federal Gulf of Mexico/GOM.

The rise in production is driven by increased oil-directed drilling activity, particularly in onshore shale formations."

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Larry, I think, there's data that show a small decrease (or just the potential of a small decrease) in world oil supply raises world oil prices dramatically.

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The elasticity of oil supply is almost fixed (or inelastic), because of Peak Oil.

So, a small increase in demand causes oil prices to rise sharply.

Demand for oil normally increases (e.g. from population growth) and there's no significant substitute for oil.

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Demand exceeding supply is why oil rose from $10 a barrel in the late 1990s to over $100 a barrel today.

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Methinks, if the U.S. economy had a normal recovery, oil would've risen towards $200 a barrel, and constrained the recovery.

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Methinks, you can ride a bicycle, as a substitute for oil.

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http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=28997633&postID=2717577372027449839

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PeakTrader said...

There must be another explanation, besides "Peak Nitwitery," why two-thirds of oil producing countries reached peak oil production.

Some countries that reached Peak Oil:

Country - % Off Peak - Peak Year

United States -35% 1970
Venezuela -32% 1970
Libya -45% 1970
Kuwait -17% 1972
Iran -29% 1974
Indonesia -41% 1977
Romania -68% 1977
Trinidad & Tobago -35% 1978
Brunei -33% 1979
Tunisia -25% 1980
Peru -39% 1982
Cameroon -54% 1985
Russian Federation -14% 1987*
Egypt -23% 1993
India -1% 1995*
Syria -33% 1995
Gabon -36% 1996
Argentina -23% 1998
Colombia -26% 1999
United Kingdom -47% 1999
Uzbekistan -42% 1999
Australia -31% 2000
Norway -28% 2001
Oman -24% 2001
Yemen -33% 2002
Mexico -17% 2004
Malaysia -5% 2004*
Vietnam -26% 2004
Denmark -26% 2004
Nigeria -16% 2005*
Chad -27% 2005*
Italy -15% 2005*
Ecuador -6% 2006*

"Only 14 out of 54 oil producing countries and regions in the world continue to increase production, while 30 are definitely past their production peak, and the remaining 10 appear to have flat or declining production."

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Updated List:

http://truecostblog.com/2012/01/21/countries-by-peak-oil-date-2011-data-update/

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