PeakTrader.com

[administrator]

PeakTrader said...

The difference between U.S. real income, quality changes, and international trade from 1980 to 2012 is the difference between a 1980 Ford Pinto and a 2012 Honda Accord.

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rjs says: "so why arent people driving more?"

Data on Household Vehicles and Characteristics:

http://cta.ornl.gov/data/tedb30/Edition30_Chapter08.pdf

Table 8.2 shows vehicle miles per capita peaked in the mid-2000s with peak oil.

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I'm sure, there's diminishing returns on vehicle miles per capita, because the world's circumference is fixed, for example, and there's a time constraint, e.g. speed limits.

However, that doesn't explain the decline in recent years.

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Natural gas is the second largest U.S. energy source:

U.S. Energy Consumption by Source - 2009

Petroleum 37%
Natural Gas 25%
Coal 21%
Nuclear Electric Power 9%
Renewable Energy 8%

(Renewable Energy: Hydropower - 35%, Wood - 24%, Biofuels - 20%, Wind - 9%, Biomass Waste - 6%, Geothermal - 5%, Solar - 1%)

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China Energy Consumption by Source - 2006:

Coal 70%
Petroleum 20%
Hydroelectric 6%
Natural Gas 3%
Nuclear 1%
Other Renewables 0.5%

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Profiting from the Shale Boom Regardless of Who's Right
7/21/2011

"...some shale gas fields are uneconomic in the current pricing environment, which explains why drilling activity has declined in the natural gas-rich Barnett Shale and Haynesville Shale.

But the articles largely ignore the economics of the Eagle Ford Shale and other unconventional fields that produce large amounts of high-value oil, condensate and natural gas liquids (NGL's) such as butane, ethane and propane.

In general, exploration and production firms have shifted production from dry-gas fields to liquids-rich plays that offer superior profitability.

NGLs can dramatically increase the profitability of some of America's largest shale fields."

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PeakTrader:

If a larger percentage of Americans can afford a 2012 Ford F-150 (or a similar vehicle) today than a new Ford Pinto in 1980, what does that really say about inflation (and interest rates) or real income?

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