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Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast
03 August 2009

Higher oil prices brought on by a rapid increase in demand and a stagnation, or even decline, in supply could blow any recovery off course, said Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA).

Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted.

But the first detailed assessment of more than 800 oil fields in the world, covering three quarters of global reserves, has found that most of the biggest fields have already peaked and that the rate of decline in oil production is now running at nearly twice the pace as calculated just two years ago.

The IEA estimates that the decline in oil production in existing fields is now running at 6.7 per cent a year compared to the 3.7 per cent decline it had estimated in 2007, which it now acknowledges to be wrong.

Oil production has already peaked in non-Opec countries and the era of cheap oil has come to an end, it warned.

Even if demand remained steady, the world would have to find the equivalent of four Saudi Arabias to maintain production, and six Saudi Arabias if it is to keep up with the expected increase in demand between now and 2030, Dr Birol said.

"It will be especially important because the global economy will still be very fragile, very vulnerable. Many people think there will be a recovery in a few years' time but it will be a slow recovery and a fragile recovery and we will have the risk that the recovery will be strangled with higher oil prices," he told The Independent.

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MP: New staggering discovery of 23 billion barrels of oil and gas in Argentina, could double its oil and gas output within ten years. What "peak oil"?

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PeakTrader said...

Because of depletion, we need to find the equivalent of four Saudi Arabias by 2030 just to maintain current demand.

"Proven oil reserves in Saudi Arabia...estimated to be 267 billion barrels...produced 10.3 million barrels per day."

Repsol's YPF touts massive Argentine oil find, shares soar
Feb 8, 2012

"Vaca Muerta shale prospect holds 22.8 billion barrels of oil and gas resources.

If the exploration in the whole Vaca Muerta area is successful, and intense development work starts immediately, in 10 years Argentina's current oil and gas production capacity could be doubled," YPF said in a statement.

Argentina pumped around 760,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil and 4 billion cubic feet of gas per day in 2010.

It cautioned that developing the entire shale play could cost $25 billion per year.

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Peak Oil: The End of the Oil Age

Oil production in 33 out of 48 countries has now peaked, including Kuwait, Russia and Mexico.

Global oil production is now also approaching an all time peak and can potentially end our Industrial Civilization.

The most distinguished and prominent geologists, oil industry experts, energy analysts and organizations all agree that big trouble is brewing.

The world is not running out of oil itself, but rather its ability to produce high-quality cheap and economically extractable oil on demand.

Oil is now being consumed four times faster than it is being discovered, and the situation is becoming critical.

"One of nature's biggest forces is exponential growth" - Albert Einstein

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