PeakTrader.com

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PeakTrader said...

The mix of consumption has changed over the past few years.

A worker earning $5,000 a month, for example, is still spending $4,500 a month.

Of course, he's not buying a new house, a new auto, clothing at 70% off, etc.

Yet, he's spending each month, perhaps at restaurants, on an iPhone, or on non-durable goods, etc.

Unemployed workers had to cut back, although they're maintaining autonomous consumption.

And many of the employed are working overtime, because firms are less likely to hire new workers.

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National Retail Federation (NRF)

Retailers Will Hire Estimated 480,000 - 500,000 Seasonal Employees This Year.

NRF is projecting 2011 holiday sales to rise 2.8% from 2010.

If NRF's 2.8% estimate is correct, holiday sales this year would be $465.6 billion.

In 2010, holiday sales increased 5.2% to $452.9 billion, which was a significant improvement from the -0.4% decrease in 2009.

On average, holiday sales have increased 2.6% per year for the last 10 years.

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Nov. 6, 2011

ShopperTrak predicts a 2.2 percent increase in sales from last year.

American Research Group Inc...found more than 35 percent planning to cut back on holiday spending because of rising food prices.

Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst for NPD Group Inc., said Halloween produced a lot of traffic at retail stores -- but much of it was browsing, not buying.

The Shop.org eHoliday survey indicates online sales will do better...with consumers planning to do 36 percent of their shopping online, compared to 32.7 percent in 2010.

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morganovich said...

"ShopperTrak predicts a 2.2 percent increase in sales from last year."

note that that is a decline in real terms of about 1.5% and one likely to widen as CPI is going back up in a big way in November.

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PeakTrader said...

Morganovich, perhaps, but Real Retail and Food Services Sales increased recently:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RRSFS

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http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=28997633&postID=6994695749231251563

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PeakTrader said...

"...thanks to increased production and greater energy efficiency (plus the use of ethanol), imports are down to 47%."

We can also thank $100 oil and depression.

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Rufus II said...

A couple of things. U.S. Oil Consumption fell by 12.8% from 2005 to 2011 and Biofuels production increased approx. 1 Million bbl/day during the same period.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/selling-oil-illusion-american-style/64852?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ChrisMartensonBlogs+%28Chris+Martenson+Blogs%29

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PeakTrader said...

Rufus, it's down 2 million barrels a day compared to 2007:

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/07/us-oil-consumption.html

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Iraq has the potential to increase oil production from 3 million barrels a day to 12 million within 10 years:

Iraq Could Delay Peak Oil a Decade

"The major producers (e.g. Russia and Saudi Arabia) seemed to have more-or-less reached production plateaus.

Iraq's oil capacity could reach 12 million barrels per day (bpd) in six years, the country's oil minister says.

Six years is not a short period for a large oilfield development in a flat desert - a fairly undemanding operating environment by oil industry standards."

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Nov 16, 2011

"...new wells in promising areas and building pipelines and other infrastructure needed to fulfill Iraq's ambitious goal of ramping up capacity to 12 million barrels per day by 2017, a figure that would rival top global producer Saudi Arabia.

Iraq's current production is 2.9 million bpd."

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Top World Oil
Producers, 2009
(Thousand Barrels per Day)

Country Production

1 Russia 9,934
2 Saudi Arabia 9,760
3 United States 9,141
4 Iran 4,177
5 China 3,996
6 Canada 3,294
7 Mexico 3,001
8 United Arab Emirates 2,795
9 Brazil 2,577
10 Kuwait 2,496
11 Venezuela 2,471
12 Iraq 2,400
13 Norway 2,350
14 Nigeria 2,211
15 Algeria 2,086

http://www.eia.gov/countries/index.cfm

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voxrationalis said...

The variation of "dependence" on foreign oil is highly correlated with consumption. Not a surprise; the more we consume, the more we need to import. As consumption has declined by 9% in the last 5-6 years, so have our imports of foreign oil.

Graph here:

http://voxrationalis.wordpress.com/2011/11/17/u-s-dependence-on-foreign-oil-lowest-since-1995/

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http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=28997633&postID=6719727311891274524