PeakTrader.com

[administrator]

PeakTrader said...

Fatih Birol, IEA chief economist, said "The age of cheap oil is over." So, the question is how expensive will it get within the next 10 or 20 years:

Record gas prices blamed on peak oil
Mar 28, 2011

World oil supplies plateaued five years ago... worrisome information coming out of the International Energy Agency (IEA) lately.

In its landmark global study, called the World Energy Outlook 2008, the IEA published the average depletion rate of the 800 largest crude oil fields in the world, from Saudi Arabia to Texas.

The report concludes 73 per cent of those oil fields are past their peak and depleting rapidly at 5.1 per cent per year.

At that rate, two-thirds of today's crude oil production will simply be gone by 2030.

Today's active oil fields produce about 70 million barrels per day, but by 2035 "they will produce less than 20 million barrels per day of oil."

Compounding the problem, world oil demand is surging, especially from China. That country recently overtook the U.S. to become the world's top energy consumer.

----------

PeakTrader said...

Dr T, this may signal good times ahead:

Retail Sales For March
Apr. 7, 2011

Victoria's Secret sales up 19%.

Also:

Limited Brands sales up 14%.
Costco sales up 13%.
Macy's sales up 0.9%.

Not all good news:

Gap sales dropped 10%.
Target sales down 5.5%.

"Bad weather, higher gasoline prices and a later Easter were expected to result in the first monthly retail sales decline since 2009, but consumers continued to spend in March, giving retailers a modest 1.7% gain over the same period last year."

----------

Stores turn in surprisingly strong sales for March
April 7, 2011

There are signs now that the cycle is taking off. Ajay Banga, the CEO and president of MasterCard Inc., told The Associated Press that there's "something changing" in American spending habits.

"The 90 percent of the people who are employed, compared with the 10 (percent) who are not, no longer believe that their jobs are at risk," Banga said. "And their willingness to spend has changed compared with six or nine months ago ... when there was a fear."

Americans have more money to spend because of a two-percentage-point cut in the Social Security payroll tax, which will provide most households an additional $1,000 to $2,000 this year. The IRS had also paid out $206 billion in tax refunds through March 25, 1.1 percent more than at the same point last year.

The economic recovery keeps defying expectations and getting stronger. Robust consumer spending in March is the latest sign that the rebound is entering a self-reinforcing cycle of improvement.