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U.S. Exports

 
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 17, 2010 8:18 pm    Post subject: U.S. Exports Reply with quote

Percentages are often misleading. For example, U.S. exports in 2008 were $1.63 trillion and in 2009 were $1.47 trillion (in 2005 dollars) or a 9.6% decline from the prior year (according to National Economic Trends).

However, in the fourth quarter of 2009, U.S. exports were $1.55 trillion annualized or increased at a 22.8% "annual rate," but decreased 0.7% from a "year ago" (fourth quarter of 2008}.

If U.S. exports increase 10% in 2010 (in 2005 dollars, which it hasn't done at least in the past four years), that will add $147 billion or 1.1% to GDP (excluding import growth) to a $13 trillion economy (in 2005 dollars).

I think, it's realistic to believe U.S. net export growth can add 0.5% to U.S. real GDP growth.

In 2006, U.S. exports were $1.42 trillion and U.S. imports were $2.15 trillion, or a $730 billion deficit (in 2005 dollars).

In 2009, U.S. exports were $1.47 trillion and U.S. imports were $1.82 trillion, or a $350 billion deficit (in 2005 dollars).

In 2006, U.S. real GDP was $12.98 trillion, and in 2009, U.S. real GDP was $12.99 trillion (in 2005 dollars).

So, the $380 billion "improvement" in the trade imbalance added 2.9% to U.S. real GDP growth.
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