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According to the NY Fed model, the chances of a double-dip recession in 2010 or 2011? Zero (less than 1%).

PeakTrader said...
Of course, the probability of a recession is low, because we're at the beginning of an expansion. The question should be how will the new U.S. economy look like?

We're on the verge of net job creation, after losing 8 1/2 million jobs in two years, and another 1 1/2 million jobs are needed each year just to keep up with population growth. However, job growth will likely be too weak to raise employment much for at least two years.

Anyway, I see the cost of living rising through higher prices, less capital creation, and more taxes. The U.S. economy will likely become much more inefficient. Living standards may actually decline, substantially, over the next decade.

Demographics are one bright spot. The Baby-Boomers may remain most productive for another decade, because retirements will be postponed, which will add to economic growth.

James Fraasch said...
Sure, if the government keeps borrowing and spending money then GDP will rise. It's not necessarily because of an increase in employment, it's simply a matter of government spending.

I project that if the government continues to borrow and spend trillions of dollars then GDP will rise.

I also predict that if the government continues to do that, then future production will be severely muted by the debt load thrust upon us by a fiscally irresponsible federal government.

There is no free lunch. An increase in GDP does not make for a better life. An increase in GDP does not make for lower unemployment.

PeakTrader said...
It seems cat stew was a delicacy during the Great Depression:

Cooking Show Host Fired for Recommending Cat Stew
Feb 19th 2010

Beppe Bigazzi, a well-known food writer, was fired from the cooking show "La Prova del Cuoco" after telling viewers that stewed cat is a "succulent dish," the Times of London reports.

"I've eaten it myself and it's a lot better than many other animals. Better than chicken, rabbit or pigeon," the 77-year-old Bigazzi told viewers.

The show's presenter Elisa Isoardi, who mentioned her own cat Othello in protest, looked awkwardly horrified as Bigazzi explained that cat meat should be soaked in spring water for three days before cooking.

The show's producers are to be investigated for criminal offenses for inciting the mistreatment of animals, the Times reported.

With stray cats being euthanized by the millions, is it really so shocking to suggest eating a few here and there?

PeakTrader said...
The severe recession and slow recovery could've been avoided, even with the moral hazard of "too big to fail."

The correction took place suddenly rather than slowly (after Lehman failed), and the recovery is taking place slowly rather than suddenly (because it's a consumer-driven economy rather than an export-led economy), which caused a lot of idle resources.

Wall Street doesn't have a monopoly on greed. It just deals with more money and spreads the risk to other greedy people.

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PeakTrader: Health insurance went up, because government restricts competition, has 130,000 pages of health care regulations, unfunded mandates, etc.

Competition reduces costs and prices through efficiencies, and may increase profits, which the government attacks.