PeakTrader.com

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1. March 17, 2008

The S&P 100 (OEX/595.50) put/call, and open interest, ratios are bullish for the first time in more than a year! Meanwhile, the latest AAII sentiment poll is skewed bullishly. Listen to what Peter Eliades of Stock Market Cycles had to say about that:

“The report showed 43.3% bears and 31.1% bulls. Listen to this! The plurality of bears over bulls today, an apparently meager 12.2%, is huge on a relative basis. It is the highest plurality of bears over bulls since October 11th, 2002 (14.8%). But before that, you have to go back to January 6th, 1995, to find another plurality of bears over bulls greater than today's reading of 12.2%. For over 13 years, there has been such a pent-up and persistent bullishness among advisers that this is only the second plurality of bears over bulls over 12% in the past 13 years.”

2. http://www.morningstar.com/cover/pfvgraph.html

3. http://www.smartmoney.com/pricecheck/

4. Fed won't tighten the money supply until after the election. So, it'll be behind the curve again

5. CBOE Put/Call 200-day MA at all-time high.

6. March 24, 2008

How bullish are “Double Nine-To-One” signals? According to professor David Aronson, “[we used] data from the beginning of 1942 through fall of 2006, and looked at what happens in the stock market in the 60-trading-day period following a . . . Double Nine-To-One signal, versus what happens the rest of the time. In those 60-trading-day windows, the S&P 500 index produced an average annualized return of over 22%, on the assumption that an investor entered the market on the close the day after the Double Nine-To-One signal was triggered and held until the end of the 60th trading day. In the non-signal periods the return averaged 4.5% annualized.” When we combine the “Double Nine-To-One” signal, the 90% Upside Day, the observed downside non-confirmations, the most bearish sentiment readings in 15 years (read: bullishly), we can’t help but remain bullish in the short/intermediate term, thinking the downside retest of the January “lows” will be successful. Yet by far the most stock-bullish event occurring last week was the “dive” in the Commodity Research Bureau’s index of leading commodities as can be seen in the nearby chart from our friends at the invaluable service www.thechartstore.com.