Joined: 28 Dec 2005
|Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2007 3:42 pm Post subject: Sep 13th Trading Log (Fri Trading Plan)
|Sep 13th Trading Log (Fri Trading Plan):
Intermediate-term technical indicators and sentiment indicators are bullish. However, seasonality and a FOMC easing, that's priced-into the market, are bearish. Repositioning of short positions, which may partially explain the recent rally is also bearish. Moreover, since the early '80s, each time SPX rose to the 50-day MA after falling over 9%, it tested the low (although, not enough observations to be statistically significant). Consequently, it seems more likely SPX will test the low, e.g. 1,370, in late-Sep or Oct before testing the high, e.g. 1,550. Of course, almost anything is possible, e.g. SPX testing the high quickly, perhaps next week before falling sharply. So, I plan to build-up cash and wait for an overreaction, one way or the other. If C rises a little higher, than the high today, I'll sell some calls. Also, I'll sell the KBH calls, if they rise higher. However, I may buy more KKD and SIMG calls, because they have the potential to rise quickly, independently of the market.
My portfolio is over $215,000 including over $155,000 in cash.
C Dec 45 2007 100
KBH Jan 25 2008 20
KKD Oct 2.5 2007 100
SIMG Dec 7.5 2007 200
Portfolio at $100,000 on Jul 1st, 2007. Portfolio stop loss is raised to $150,000 (stop loss will be strictly enforced and extreme caution will be taken if triggered to avoid large losses in "irrational" market periods).