Joined: 28 Dec 2005
|Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2022 9:08 pm Post subject: Next Week Trading (Dec 3rd)
|Next Week Trading (Dec 3rd):
I've been on break from trading, although made a few SPY trades. The economic data suggest the beginning of the next recession may be pushed back, e.g. to Q2 2023. We likely had a mild recession, if defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, earlier this year. In Q1 and Q2 2022, real GDP declined from $20.01 trillion to $19.90 trillion. In Q3 2022, real GDP was $20.39 trillion and will likely be higher this quarter. So, real GDP is expanding again. However, given the Fed is behind the curve on inflation, it will need to tighten more than many expect. Each time the Fed tightened by a large percentage, the economy has always fallen into recession. A recession, and possibly a more severe recession than many believe, is likely in 2023. However, the stock market may rally into mid-January earnings before at least a test of the lows. A SPX rally up to 4,500 and then a fall to 3,500? Anyway, I'll mostly stay out of the market, until better opportunities show up.
My portfolio is about $2,445,000 including $2,402,200 in cash.
Calls Contracts-Shares Long
Puts Contracts-Shares Short
SPY Jun 400 2023 20
Portfolio at $100,000 on March 1st, 2018. Portfolio stop loss suspended. Scaled up and adjusted portfolio. Both prior portfolios, since early 2000s, rose initially and substantially, and then failed quickly in “irrational” market “melt-ups," where stocks can go straight up month after month.