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Joined: 28 Dec 2005 Posts: 11987
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Posted: Sat Jul 02, 2022 7:16 am Post subject: Next Week Trading (Jul 2nd) |
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Next Week Trading (Jul 2nd):
SPX on Friday traded between 3,752 and 3,830, and closed at 3,825, up 40 points. The 3,900 level will likely be resistance and a volatile range may continue next week before earnings of big names are reported. However, the four stocks I'm holding are much more beaten down than SPX and may have bottomed. So, I believe their pullbacks will be limited and they may lead or outperform SPX. Rather than buy calls, I plan to take advantage of volatility to trade shares. It may be a good idea to hedge with some SPY Oct puts above 3,900. Inflation peaked in February (Core PCE declined from 5.3% to 4.7%) with a likely recession (real GDP down 1.6% in Q1 and GDPNOW down 2.1% in Q2). The Fed may not tighten much more, because don't see any stimulus down the road and recession may continue.
My portfolio is over $1,705,000 including $1,306,500 in cash.
Calls Contracts-Shares Long
EWJ 2,000 shares
ARKK 2,000 shares
BABA 1,000 shares
DNA 40,000 shares
Puts Contracts-Shares Short
None
Portfolio at $100,000 on March 1st, 2018. Portfolio stop loss suspended. Scaled up and adjusted portfolio. Both prior portfolios, since early 2000s, rose initially and substantially, and then failed quickly in “irrational” market “melt-ups," where stocks can go straight up month after month. |
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